As of mid-September 2024, the projected electoral vote count for the U.S. presidential election is still highly competitive, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a tight race. According to the latest polling data and consensus electoral maps, the battle for the White House is centered around key swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.
Based on current projections:
- Kamala Harris is leading with 226 electoral votes in states considered either “safe” or “likely” Democratic. This includes states like California, New York, and Illinois, which are expected to vote solidly Democratic.
- Donald Trump is projected to have 219 electoral votes in states that are safely or likely to go Republican. This includes states such as Texas, Florida, and Ohio.
This leaves 93 electoral votes up for grabs in critical swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, all of which remain in the “toss-up” category. These states are fiercely contested, and their eventual lean will likely decide the next president. The margin between the two candidates is razor-thin, making voter turnout and the final weeks of campaigning crucial for both campaigns.
It’s also worth noting that some states have shifted slightly from their 2020 positions. For example, Colorado has moved from “likely” Democratic to “safe” Democratic, while North Carolina remains competitive and closely contested.
As the election approaches, these projections will continue to evolve, especially with the addition of third-party candidates in some states and any late shifts in voter sentiment. Both campaigns will likely intensify their focus on the battleground states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
